breezy

New/Old Diseases Human/Animal A record..

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Black Death: Nine Countries in Danger as Unusually Severe Plague Hits Madagascar

Oct. 26, 2017

"An "uncharacteristic" outbreak of plague in Madagascar has killed 124 people since August, the authorities say; in contrast to other plague epidemics, most of the victims have been infected with the deadliest pneumonic form of the disease, which can spread via coughing from human to human.
An unusually severe plague outbreak in Madagascar has infected over 1,000 people and killed 124 since August, the island's government and the UN reported on Wednesday.

"The total number of cases (1,192) is already three times higher than the average annual total," the  UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and the Madagascan  National Bureau of Risk Management and Disaster stated.

Plague is a constant threat in Madagascar, where several hundred cases are usually reported each year. However, the authorities say the current outbreak is "uncharacteristic" because it has broken out a month earlier than usual and has occurred in predominantly urban areas. The capital Antananarivo, a transport and trade hub, and the port of Toamasina are most affected."
snip

https://sputniknews.com/africa/201710261058557294-madagascar-severe-plague-outbreak/

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well it is that time of year again and this one may be a doozie...starting slow with a consumer reports article.

a quote from CIDRAP director from short article worth reading...

"What the rapidly mutating pathogen will do this year is still anyone's guess, but epidemiologists are on high alert. "Bird flu is our number one, two, and three priority," says Michael Osterholm, Ph.D., director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. "For both birds and humans." 

 

https://www.consumerreports.org/flu/what-you-need-to-know-about-bird-flu/

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@hcvslayer  nice to see you and your post slayer


Madagascar plague death toll rises to 171 with a 4% jump in cases as experts fear the 'worst outbreak in 50 years' WILL become resistant to antibiotics and reach US, Europe and Britain

Stephen Matthews            Nov. 16, 2017

 

"The deadly plague outbreak in Madagascar is rapidly spiralling out of control as 171 people have now lost their lives, official figures reveal.
World Health Organization data also shows the 'medieval disease' has infected 2,119 in the country off the coast of Africa - a four per cent jump in a handful of days. 
The 'crisis' has prompted ten African countries to be placed on high alert, with the WHO ordering nine to step up preparations. 
Experts fear the plague, which strikes Madagascar every year, will inevitably become resistant to antibiotics and mutate and become untreatable.
Others worry it will eventually hit the US, Europe and Britain, leaving millions more vulnerable due to how quick it can spread through populations.
And with the plague season expected to run until April, scientists believe there will be another spike of cases in the coming months. 
Scores of doctors and nurses have already been struck down with the disease, and there are growing fears hospitals will be unable to cope if it continues its rampage.
But local officials are adamant the 'worst outbreak in 50 years' is slowing down as the number of new cases is on the decline."

More than 2,000 cases have now been reported in Madagascar, health chiefs have revealed, as 10 nearby nations have been placed on high alert

More than 2,000 cases have now been reported in Madagascar, health chiefs have revealed, as 10 nearby nations have been placed on high alert

snip

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-5088307/Madagascar-plague-death-toll-rises-171.html

 

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here is europes updated pandemic preparedness plan and the U.S updated preparedness plan for your convenient perusal. i will comment a lil on U.S document.

 

https://ecdc.europa.eu/sites/portal/files/documents/Guide-to-pandemic-preparedness-revised.pdf

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/pdf/pan-flu-report-2017v2.pdf

from CDC doc:

         " The novel virus will have the ability to spread rapidly worldwide.

  • If the pandemic is characterized by severe disease, it will have the potential to disrupt national and community infrastructures (including health care, transportation, commerce, utilities, and public safety) due to widespread illness, absenteeism, and death among workers and their families, as well as concern about ongoing exposure to the virus.

  • Not all jurisdictions will experience clusters of disease simultaneously; however, near- simultaneous clusters likely will occur in many communities across the United States, thereby limiting the ability of any jurisdiction to support and assist other jurisdictions. " 

  •  

  • "  Children will shed the greatest amount of virus and, therefore, are likely to pose the greatest risk for transmission.

    • The most severely ill people with influenza will shed the most virus for the longest period of time.

    • One or two secondary infections will occur as a result of transmission from someone who is ill. In contrast, some estimates from past pandemics have been higher, with up to three secondary infections per primary case. "

    • "   Table A.1. Estimated Illness, Types of Medical Care, and Deaths from a Moderate to Very Severe Influenza Pandemic

      page44image7416

      Pandemic Severity (based on multiple factors

      Transmissibility (% of US populationb with clinical illness)

      page44image11288page44image12048

      Illness

      page44image13952

      Outpatient medical care

      page44image15248

      Hospitali- zation

      page44image17056

      ICU care

      page44image18768

      Deaths

      Moderate

      20%

      page44image23824

      64,000,000

      32,000,000

      page44image25608

      800,000

      page44image26768

      160,000

      page44image27944

      48,000

      30%

      page44image30928

      96,000,000

      48,000,000

      page44image32712

      1,200,000

      page44image33872

      240,000

      page44image35048

      72,000

      Severe

      20%

      page44image39432

      64,000,000

      32,000,000

      page44image41216

      3,800,000

      page44image42376

      1,200,000

      page44image43552

      510,000

      30%

      page44image46536

      96,000,000

      48,000,000

      page44image48320

      5,800,000

      page44image49480

      1,700,000

      page44image50656

      770,000

      Very Severe

      20%

      page44image55784

      64,000,000

      32,000,000

      page44image57568

      7,700,000

      page44image58728

      2,300,000

      page44image59904

      1,300,000

      30%

      page44image62336
      page44image63240

      96,000,000

      page44image64168page44image64592

      48,000,000

      page44image65792

      11,500,000

      page44image66824
      page44image67288

      3,500,000

      page44image68320
      page44image68808

      1,930,000

      page44image70160page44image70480

      a Adapted from Reed C, Biggerstaff M, Finelli L, Koonin LM, Beauvais D, Uzicanin A, Plummer A, Bresee J, Redd SC, Jernigan DB. Novel framework for assessing epidemiologic effects of influenza epidemics and pandemics. Emerg Inf Dis 2013; 19:85-91                

      b 2015 US Population estimate used for calculation. 

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   H7n9 has great potential to breakout as does H5N6...all in the news....a few countries and it looks like south korea will take another big hit this year...the roller coaster ride of bird flu is clickity clackity climbing slow but...here we go again...HANG ON...   
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@hcvslayer Hope you'll be able to keep us updated on this situation.

 Moroto on Alert as Patient Dies of Suspected Marburg Fever  (Uganda)

Nov. 17, 2017

"In short
The primary-six pupil was rushed to Moroto Army Barracks Health Centre IV on Tuesday night with signs akin to the Marburg virus, a highly virulent epidemic-prone disease associated with high case fatality rates. The virus is transmitted by direct contact with the blood, body fluids and tissues of infected persons or animals."

https://ugandaradionetwork.com/story/moroto-put-on-alert-as-patient-dies-of-hemorrhagic-fever

I didn't join the site to read the whole article, so here's a synopsis of a post made about it.

No news reports about the outbreak.  3 confirmed had it. all three died. Lots of contacts of suspected cases.  The teenager fell sick at school, was bleeding, vomiting blood, was taken to a military facility and died. Everyone who had contact is being restricted.  3rd province in Uganda, and possible cases in Kenya.  Ebola plane, N173pa, from CDC has been used with hidden flight paths to Nairobi, Kenya, (where there's a CDC testing facility) since before the first case was reported.  The silence does not bode well,  trying to keep it silent.

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one of the marburg victims had travelled to kenya. as of yet no kenyan infections but they are on the look out. the horror of hemorrhagic fever is the overt bleeding, a  manifestation of the cytokine storm causing DIC ( disseminated intravascular  coagulation) all the clotting factors get used up and with no more left the body bleeds .  this we see in any overwhelming sepsis along with multi organ failure. 1918 bird flu was hemorrhagic on a global, pandemic level. difference is that this virus can be contained like ebola since they are body fluid spread. think of a novel air born avian flu as marburg or ebola with wings !! heres what i found:

 

"The MoH officially declared the outbreak on 19 October 2017. As of 14 November, three cases have been reported including two confirmed cases, and one probable case. All three cases have died, resulting in a case fatality rate of 100%. The cases were epidemiologically linked and all belong to the same family."

"Active case search, death surveillance, safe and dignified burials and community mobilization are ongoing in Kween and Kapchorwa districts. In Uganda, of the 339 contacts listed, 283 have completed 21 days of follow-up and 56 are still being monitored. Contact follow-up is ongoing in Kween for the 56 contacts, while In Kapchorwa District, all the listed contacts have completed the 21 days follow-up period. All remaining contacts are expected to complete 21 days of follow up on 16 November 2017. Enhanced surveillance activities will continue until 7 December 2017."

"A media signal about quarantine measures being implemented by Kenya on the border with the affected areas in Uganda was verified; the signal was not confirmed by the health authorities in Kenya."

http://www.who.int/csr/don/15-november-2017-marburg-uganda-kenya/en/

 

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Venezuelans suffer as malaria outbreak spreads in drug-short nation

Maria Ramirez              Nov. 24, 2017

"CIUDAD GUAYANA, Venezuela (Reuters) - On a recent morning in Venezuela's southern jungle state of Bolivar, Amanda Santamaria, her two sons, one daughter-in-law, and a granddaughter lined up in front of a shabby community health center in the hope of receiving treatment for malaria.

All five of them are afflicted by the mosquito-borne disease, which is rapidly spreading through Venezuela as an economic meltdown strips the country of medicine and doctors.

"We don't know if this is a curse, but the entire area is awash in malaria," said Santamaria, 56, suffering her second bout of the illness in the last three months and relying on palliative herbal teas because she has not found regular drugs.

The family was waiting with some 500 others under the scorching sun in the hope of receiving treatment"

snip

https://www.yahoo.com/news/venezuelans-suffer-malaria-outbreak-spreads-drug-short-nation-121824448.html

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Europe's HIV epidemic growing at alarming rate, WHO warns

Nov. 28, 2017    Kate Kelland

"LONDON (Reuters) - The number of people newly diagnosed with HIV in Europe reached its highest level in 2016 since records began, showing the region's epidemic growing "at an alarming pace", health officials said on Tuesday.

 That year, 160,000 people contracted the virus that causes AIDS in the 53 countries that make up the World Health Organization's European region, the agency said in a joint report with the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).

Around 80 percent of those were in eastern Europe, the report found.

"This is the highest number of cases recorded in one year. If this trend persists, we will not be able to achieve the ... target of ending the HIV epidemic by 2030," the WHO's European regional director, Zsuzsanna Jakab, said in a statement."

snip

 https://www.yahoo.com/news/europes-hiv-epidemic-growing-alarming-rate-warns-092217782.html

 

As scarlet fever cases rise, baffled researchers investigate

Nov. 27, 2017  Sandee LaMotte

"The age-old killer scarlet fever is on the rise in England and East Asia, according to research published Monday in The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal, and investigators don't  know why. 

"Whilst current rates (in England) are nowhere near those seen in the early 1900s, the magnitude of the recent upsurge is greater than any documented in the last century," said study author Theresa Lamagni of Public Health England, the agency that funded the analysis. "Whilst notifications so far for 2017 suggest a slight decrease in numbers, we continue to monitor the situation carefully ... and research continues to further investigate the rise."
 
Identified by a bright red rash that looks and feels like sandpaper, scarlet fever is a highly contagious disease caused by the same bacteria behind strep throat, group A Streptococcus pyogenes."
snip

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/27/health/scarlet-fever-mystery-study/index.html

 

@hcvslayer  I'm sure the way I wrote my post, led you to think I meant the Marlburg situation, sorry, I meant bird flu updates, as this is far more important right now, than a few cases of Marlburg, unless that situation is far more serious than is being told.  In any case, any and all updates you give regarding diseases/threats, are appreciated. 

 

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thnx for clarification breezy : ) i did misunderstand but was glad to add some info that i had found re marburg virus.

as for bird flu, the H5N6 virus found in korea is a new reassortant  virus and not the one that ran through last year. it also has been found in a dead wild bird in japan...it is highly pathogenic to birds...CIDRAP has a blurb on it below...

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2017/11/news-scan-nov-29-2017

avian flu diary more detailed...bottom line is that these viruses are re-inventing their selves and are becoming endemic in wild/waterfowl and migratory pathways.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2017/11/tottori-university-shimane-hpai-h5n6.html

 H7N9 has had 5 waves and below is a graph where you can see what happened with the 5th wave...H7N9 if we begin a 6th wave is worth a big watch as it has a great potential to adapt to human to human transmission..it has made a number of mammalian adaptations in a new highly pathogenic version (hpai)...

"All of these studies suggest that HPAI H7N9 has acquired important mammalian adaptations that may increase both its virulence, and its transmissibility, and together they may enhance its pandemic potential.

While all very concerning, particularly on top of seeing a record number of human H7N9 infections during the 5th epidemic wave (see chart at top of blog), we haven't (yet) seen any signs of increased human-to-human transmission in the field. "

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2017/11/eid-journal-clusters-of-h7n9-in-china.html

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America faces one of the worst flu seasons ever as doctors warn the vaccine is only 10% effective this year - and infections are already on the rise

Mia De Graaf              Dec.5, 2017

"America is set to endure one of the most perilous flu seasons in years - with doctors warning it could be similar to the deadly 2014 outbreak.  
It is becoming increasingly clear that the US will be hit by a particular strain of influenza called H3N2, the same strain which has just wreaked havoc in Australia, and was responsible for the four most deadly flu seasons in the last 10 years. 
Early assessments suggest the current vaccine - which was produced in spring after scientists made an educated guess at what strain to expect - will be just 10 percent effective. 
While some seasons don't kick off until February, we are already seeing a surge in people hospitalized with influenza-like symptoms - at a rate even faster and earlier than we saw in 2014. 
'I'm anticipating this being a bad flu year,' infectious diseases specialist Dr Pritish Tosh, of the Mayo Clinic, told Daily Mail Online."

snip

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-5148911/This-years-flu-set-one-worst-ever.html

Right now, it doesn't look to bad for H3N2, but we'll have to see how it goes.  10% effective vaccine doesn't encourage one to take a shot, does it? 

 

 

 

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H3N2 is a bugger of a flu... those who are older or have a weak immune system are subject to getting real sick with the virus. tamiflu would help for those who are at risk..

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the reassortant H5N6 has gone from wild birds to domestic farms, it was only a matter of time..

 

"A reassortant H5N6 avian flu virus detected in three Asian nations over the past few weeks has been confirmed in an outbreak in the Netherlands."

"South Korea—one of the countries that has already reported outbreaks from the H5N6 reassortant this season—reported another at a duck farm."

"The outbreak in the Netherlands was first reported on Dec 8, and government officials had said initial tests from the duck farm near the city of Dronten was likely a highly pathogenic strain."

"The Netherlands is the fifth country to report the H5N6 reassortant, which is similar to a virus fist identified in Greece during last winter's extensive H5N8 outbreaks that struck Europe and other parts of the world. The virus is a reassortant of highly pathogenic H5N8 and endemic Eurasian viruses."

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2017/12/h5n6-avian-flu-reassortant-confirmed-dutch-outbreak

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